Methodology Sidebar

Sector Cycles Table

M’Cap:

  The aggregate market cap. of stock constituents in the displayed sector and region (Global, US, Non-US) based on shares outstanding.

Cyclicality

The cycle analysis is based on spectral analysis of frequency response of a sector index. The Long and the Short Cycles are those cycles with the best frequency response for cycles ranging from 10 to 375 trading days.

Length:

  The average length of the cycle as measured from bottom to bottom.

Fit:

  A fit of 100% represents that the most recent cycle bottoms and tops are exactly symmetric around the given cycle length. A fit of 75% or more is considered good. A fit below 50% is considered poor.

Days to Top and Bottom:

  An estimate of the number of trading days from or to the next cycle top or bottom. This is indicative only and should be considered alongside other indicators such as Volume Confirmation Signals. Particularly the “Days to Top” should be treated with some caution as cycles can often have left or right translation meaning that the top occurs late (or early) even though the cycle is well-defined in terms of the bottom-to-bottom symmetry which tends to be the more stable measure of cyclicality.

Note that our definition of “Non-US” only refers to non-US domiciled stocks trading on US exchanges. “Global” refers to US traded stocks of all domiciles.

Contact Us

Via our website

Via Telephone:
New York: London:
+1 646 502 7623 +44 20 7193 1577

About MarketScalpel

We are an independent equity research firm enabling clients to take advantage of sector trends.

MarketScalpel's research services are based on value-added  sector data generated by our proprietary sector database.  This is the the product  of 4 years' development for the core software systems, with new features added on an ongoing basis. 

The analytical framework compiles a comprehensive array of equity sector data bottom-up from our stocks universe.  This comprises around 4,700 stocks listed on US exchanges selected on a market cap and liquidity screen, that are mapped on to a sector structure containing in excess of 150 sub-sectors and industries organized under the 10 major top levels sectors.

The proprietary data we extract for each sector are  designed to quantify market sentiment and forecast future performance.  We also produce conventional data such as market cap weighted  sector price indices and volume, collectively forming the basis for a variety of quantitative, statistical and other numerical analysis focused on the sector and industry level.

Our Market Navigator research platform incorporates this into tools for strategic market-by-sector analysis and tactical assessment of sector attractiveness